Predicting the Future

Instructor Dr. Michael Young Contact: 453-3567, meyoung@siu.edu Office hours: 2-5 pm, Tu/Th Location: 271F LSII

Readings
Books
Sherden, W. A. (1998). The Fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions. New York: Wiley and Sons.
Vyse, S. (1997). Believing in magic: The psychology of superstition. New York: Oxford University Press.

Both available at University Bookstore (in Student Center).

Articles
Additional articles/chapters may be added but will include:

• Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment, Science, 24, 1668-1674.
• Dawes, R. M. (1979). The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, 34, 571-582.
• Einhorn, H.J. (1986). Accepting error to make less error. Journal of Personality Assessment, 50, 387-395.
• Fischoff, B. (1994). What forecasts (seem to) mean. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 387-403.
• Fischoff, B., Bostrom, A., Quadrel, M.J. (1993). Risk perception and communication. Annual Review of Public Health, 14, 183-203.
• Grove, W.M., Zald, D.H., Lebow, B.S., Snitz, B.E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19-30
• Heit, E., Price, P.C., & Bower, G. H. (1994). A model for predicting the outcomes of basketball games. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 8, 621-639.
• Meehl, P. (1986). Causes and effects of my disturbing little book. Journal of Personality Assessment, 50, 370-375.
• Monahan, J., & Steadman, H. J. (1996). Violent storms and violent people: How meteorology can inform risk communication in mental health law. American Psychologist, 51, 931-938.
• Moore, D. A., Kurtzberg, T., Fox, C. R., & Bazerman, M. H. (1999). Positive illusions and forecasting errors in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes, 79, 95-114.
• Mulvey E. P., & Cauffman E. (2001) The inherent limits of predicting school violence. American Psychologist, 56, 797-802.
• Stewart, T.R. (2000). Uncertainty, judgment, and error in prediction. In Sarewitz, D., Pielke, R.A., & Byerly, R. (Eds.), Prediction: Science, decision making, and the future of nature (pp. 41-57). Island Press: Washington, DC.
• Stewart, T.R. (2001). Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. In J.S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners (pp. 81-106). Kluwer Academic Publishers.
• Swets, John A. (2000). Enhancing diagnostic decisions. In Connolly, T., Arkes, H.R., & Hammond, K.R. (Eds.), Judgment and decision making: An interdisciplinary reader (2nd ed.) (pp. 66-81). Cambridge University Press: New York.
• Walker, M.B. (1992). Gambling on games of pure chance. From The psychology of gambling (pp. 58-90). New York: Pergamon Press.
• Whitecotton, S.M., Sanders, D.E., & Norris, K.B. (1998). Improving predictive accuracy with a combination of human intuition and mechanical decision aids. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 76, 325-348.
• Wood, G. (1992). Predicting outcomes: Sports and Stocks. Journal of Gambling Studies, 8, 201-222.

Course Details
This is a course in which you will learn about the academic field of the psychology of prediction and the implications that prediction has on our everyday lives. We will also examine some simple mathematical techniques that are available to improve the accuracy of our predictions.

Grades will be based on unannounced in-class and out-of-class exercises (50%), leading discussion for one class period (or a substitute paper) (20%), and a final regression project (8 to 12 pp., 30%) that is due the first day of finals week. Grade cutoffs will be on a 90/80/70/60 scale.

Makeup/Late Policy, Complaints, and Cheating
If you want to avoid a late penalty for assignments, you will need to provide a completed explanation of absence along with appropriate documentation (e.g. excuse signed by medical professional along with phone # and patient id, copy of funeral notice, police report). Apologies, but requiring documentation for all types of absences is the fairest policy. Late assignments without accompanying documentation accrue a late penalty of 10% per day up to a maximum of 25% up to a week late. There are no make-ups for in-class assignments. If you miss one due to an excused absence, it simply won't be used in computing your grade.

Complaints and cheating will be handled in accordance with the policies outlined in the Student Code of Conduct.

Persons with disabilities
If you have a documented disability requiring special accommodations for exams or assignments, contact me within the first two weeks of class so special arrangements can be made. Please do not wait until right before an exam.

Attendance
Attendance is required - it comprises part of your grade for class participation.

Class	Topic	Reading	Discussants
1/17	Introduction		Mike
1/19	Regression - a refresher	Handout	Mike
1/24	Introduction to the business of prediction	Sherden (1998), Chapter 1	Mike
1/26	Improper linear models	Dawes (1979)	Jess
1/31-2/2	Stock market prediction	a) Sherden (1998), Chapter 4 b) Moore et al. (1999)	Michelle Hanseok
2/7	Error in prediction - The Taylor-Russell diagram	Stewart (2000)	Debbie
2/9	Diagnosis - signal detection theory	Swets (2000)	Mike
2/14	Technological prediction	Sherden (1998), Chapter 6	Justin
2/16	Sociological prediction	Sherden (1998), Chapter 7	Brandy
2/21-23	Clinical prediction	a) Dawes et al. (1989) Meehl (1986) b) Grove et al. (2000)	Lexie Erica
2/28-3/2	Predicting sports outcomes	a) Heit et al. (1994) b) Wood (1992)	Jordan Caleb
3/7-9	Gambling	a) Walker (1992) b) Vyse (1997), pp. 125-134 (top)	Mike Adam
3/21 - 23	Discussion of final project and issues in regression		Mike
3/28-30	Illusions of predictability: Superstition	Vyse (1997), a) Chapter 1 and b) Chapter 2	Lainie Mike
4/4-6	Superstition - coincidence and erroneous thinking	Vyse (1997), a) Chapter 3 and b) Chapter 4 (through p. 125)	Robyn Jennifer
4/11-13	The consequences of superstitious behavior	Vyse (1997), a) Chapter 6 and b) Chapter 7	Erik B. Mike
4/18-20	Risk communication	a) Fischoff et al. (1993) b) Monahan & Steadman (1996)	Phil Jillian
4/25-27	Improving prediction	a) Whitecotton et al. (1998) b) Stewart (2001)	Erik M. Tiana
5/2-4	Irreducible error?	a) Einhorn (1986) b) Mulvey & Cauffman (2001) Sherden (1998), Chapter 9	Andrew Mike

Course material (syllabus, grades, helpful links) are available on-line at: http://www.psychology.siu.edu/bcs/facultypages/young/Prediction.html