Predicting the Future


Instructor
Dr. Michael Young
Contact: 453-3567, meyoung@siu.edu
Office hours: 2-5 pm, Tu/Th
Location: 271F LSII

Readings
Books
Sherden, W. A. (1998). The Fortune sellers: The big business of buying and selling predictions. New York: Wiley and Sons.
Vyse, S. (1997). Believing in magic: The psychology of superstition. New York: Oxford University Press.

Both available at University Bookstore (in Student Center).

Articles
Additional articles/chapters may be added but will include:

Course Details
This is a course in which you will learn about the academic field of the psychology of prediction and the implications that prediction has on our everyday lives. We will also examine some simple mathematical techniques that are available to improve the accuracy of our predictions.

Grades will be based on unannounced in-class and out-of-class exercises (50%), leading discussion for one class period (or a substitute paper) (20%), and a final regression project (8 to 12 pp., 30%) that is due the first day of finals week. Grade cutoffs will be on a 90/80/70/60 scale.

Makeup/Late Policy, Complaints, and Cheating
If you want to avoid a late penalty for assignments, you will need to provide a completed explanation of absence along with appropriate documentation (e.g. excuse signed by medical professional along with phone # and patient id, copy of funeral notice, police report). Apologies, but requiring documentation for all types of absences is the fairest policy. Late assignments without accompanying documentation accrue a late penalty of 10% per day up to a maximum of 25% up to a week late. There are no make-ups for in-class assignments. If you miss one due to an excused absence, it simply won't be used in computing your grade.

Complaints and cheating will be handled in accordance with the policies outlined in the Student Code of Conduct.

Persons with disabilities
If you have a documented disability requiring special accommodations for exams or assignments, contact me within the first two weeks of class so special arrangements can be made. Please do not wait until right before an exam.

Attendance
Attendance is required - it comprises part of your grade for class participation.

Class

Topic

Reading Discussants
1/17
Introduction   Mike
1/19
Regression - a refresher Handout Mike
1/24
Introduction to the business of prediction Sherden (1998), Chapter 1 Mike
1/26
Improper linear models Dawes (1979)

Jess
1/31-2/2
Stock market prediction a) Sherden (1998), Chapter 4
b) Moore et al. (1999)
Michelle
Hanseok
2/7
Error in prediction - The Taylor-Russell diagram Stewart (2000) Debbie
2/9
Diagnosis - signal detection theory Swets (2000) Mike
2/14
Technological prediction Sherden (1998), Chapter 6 Justin
2/16
Sociological prediction Sherden (1998), Chapter 7 Brandy
2/21-23
Clinical prediction a) Dawes et al. (1989)
Meehl (1986)
b) Grove et al. (2000)
Lexie

Erica
2/28-3/2
Predicting sports outcomes a) Heit et al. (1994)
b) Wood (1992)
Jordan
Caleb
3/7-9
Gambling

a) Walker (1992)
b) Vyse (1997), pp. 125-134 (top)

Mike
Adam
3/21 - 23
Discussion of final project and issues in regression
  Mike
3/28-30
Illusions of predictability: Superstition Vyse (1997), a) Chapter 1 and
b) Chapter 2
Lainie
Mike
4/4-6
Superstition - coincidence and erroneous thinking Vyse (1997), a) Chapter 3 and
b) Chapter 4 (through p. 125)
Robyn
Jennifer
4/11-13
The consequences of superstitious behavior Vyse (1997), a) Chapter 6 and
b) Chapter 7
Erik B.
Mike
4/18-20
Risk communication a) Fischoff et al. (1993)
b) Monahan & Steadman (1996)

Phil
Jillian

4/25-27
Improving prediction a) Whitecotton et al. (1998)
b) Stewart (2001)
Erik M.
Tiana
5/2-4
Irreducible error? a) Einhorn (1986)
b) Mulvey & Cauffman (2001)
Sherden (1998), Chapter 9

Andrew
Mike

Course material (syllabus, grades, helpful links) are available on-line at: http://www.psychology.siu.edu/bcs/facultypages/young/Prediction.html