Judgment and Decision Making

Instructor
Dr. Michael Young
Contact: 453-3567, meyoung@siu.edu
Office hours: 9:30 - 11:30, T/W/Th
Location: 271F LSII

Textbook
Required: Hastie, R. & Dawes, R.M. (2001). Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. Sage.
Available at University Bookstore (in Student Center).
Additional articles/chapters available via links below.

Course Details
This is a course in which you will learn about the academic field of judgment and decision making, its major methods, results, and controversies. We will examine the generality of experimental results across various domains including gambling, clinical prediction, perception of randomness, and medical decision making. You will acquire some practical, general skills for decision-making that are useful in everyday life and work

There will be three multiple choice exams: two midterms and a final.

Makeup/Late Policy, Complaints, and Cheating
There will be ONE (1) makeup for each exam. In order to take the makeup, you will need to provide a completed explanation of absence along with appropriate documentation (e.g. excuse signed by medical professional along with phone # and patient id, copy of funeral notice, police report). Apologies, but requiring documentation for all types of absences is the fairest policy. Late assignments without accompanying documentation accrue a late penalty.

Complaints and cheating will be handled in accordance with the policies outlined in the Student Code of Conduct.

Persons with disabilities
If you have a documented disability requiring special accommodations for exams or assignments, contact me within the first two weeks of class so special arrangements can be made. Please do not wait until right before an exam.

Attendance
Attendance is strongly encouraged. A lot of material will only be presented in the lecture and discussion sections and there will be unannounced assignments. Do not ask me for notes.

Dates
 Topic in Text Hastie/Dawes Other Readings
8/25
 Background - What is JDM and how is it studied in psychology? 1  
8/27 - 9/1
Selective perception - Seeing what we expect to see and want to see
   reading
9/3 - 10
 Memory and hindsight biases, Context dependence 4.3, 7.4-7.8  
9/15
 Plasticity and Framing 11.3-11.4 (reading optional for UG)
9/17
 Value I: Expected value and expected utility, paradoxes 2.1-2.4
(12 - optional for UG) 		 
9/22
 Catchup or review    
9/24
 Midterm    
9/29 - 10/1
Prospect theory, Heuristic value

10.3-10.4, 3.1-3.2
(13 - optional for UG)

(reading - opt for UG)
(reading - opt for UG)
reading
reading (Goldstein)
10/6 - 8
Likelihood via the thumb: Representativeness, availability, simulation 4.4-4.7  
10/13 - 15
 Judging conditional likelihood: Probability, Mr. Bayes 9, 6.3-6.4  
10/20
 Support theory, Risk 4.6, 5 reading
(reading - opt for UG)
(reading - opt for UG )
10/22
 Judging uncertainty: The (mis)perception of randomness 8.1-8.2 reading
10/27 - 29
Judging relationships: Correlation and causation   reading
11/3
 Catchup or review   reading
11/5
 Midterm    
11/10
 Common behavioral traps 2.5-2.6 reading
on-line reading
11/12 - 17
 Prediction 3.3-3.7 reading
11/19
 No class    
12/1
 Gambling and decision making  

reading
reading
12/3
 How to improve JDM? Debiasing, etc. SDT I   reading
(reading - opt for UG)
12/8
 SDT II, Inevitable uncertainty 14 reading
12/10
 Catchup or review    
3:10 - 5:10
12/17
 Final exam    

Course material (syllabus, grades, helpful links) are available on-line at: http://www.psychology.siu.edu/bcs/facultypages/young/JDM.html